ARTICLE
ABSTRACT
In view of the contemporary changes in socio-economic processes implied by demographic conditions, it seems advisable to disseminate and deepen quantitative methods of modeling and forecasting demographic processes. This article deals with mortality analysis in Poland, of both males and females, in the years 1990–2015 by means of mortality laws covering the whole life span. Six models were investigated: 8-parameter Heligman-Pollard model, 9-parameter Heligman-Pollard model, Kostaki model, multixponential model, and finally 8- and 11-parameter Carriere models. The parameters of the models were estimated in R environment using numerical methods minimizing four different objective functions. The outcomes show that in the period under consideration some changes in the mortality patterns occurred. Now it is the 9-parameter Heligman-Pollard model for males and the 8-parameter Carriere model for females that seem best suited to model mortality in Poland.
KEYWORDS
multi-parameter mortality models of whole life span, demometrics, actuarial analysis, numerical methods, forecasting
REFERENCES
Bell W. R., (1997), Modeling and Assessing Time Series Methods for Forecasting Age-Specific Mortality and Fertility Rates, Journal of Official Statistics, 13 (3), 279–303.
Booth H., Tickle L., (2008), Mortality Modeling and Forecasting: A Review of Methods, The Australian Demographic and Social Research Institute, Working Paper 3.
Carriere J. F., (1992), Parametric Models for Life Tables, Transactions of the Society of Actuaries, 44, 77–99.
Coleman D., Rowthorn R., (2011), Who’s Afraid of Population Decline? A Critical Examination of Its Consequences, w: Lee R., Reher D. S., (red.), Demographic Transition and Its Consequences, A supplement to volume 37, Population and Development Review, 217–248.
Florczak W., (2005), Stopień integracji kluczowych zmiennych makroekonomicznych gospodarki Polski w świetle wybranych testów, Wiadomości Statystyczne, 11, 1–15.
Florczak W., (2008), Efektywna podaż pracy a wzrost gospodarczy, Gospodarka Narodowa, 11/12, 21–46.
Florczak W., (2009a), Makroekonomiczne uwarunkowania oczekiwanej długości życia w Polsce, Gospodarka Narodowa, 5–6, 61–90.
Florczak W., (2009b), Ekonometryczny model szacowania liczby urodzeń dla Polski, Wiadomości Statystyczne, 6, 48–72.
Florczak W., (2011), Produktywność czynników wzrostu PKB, Wiadomości Statystyczne, 2, 8–26.
Forfar D. O., (2004), Mortality Laws, w: Teugels J. L., Sundt B., (red.), Encyclopedia of Actuarial Science, 1139–1145.
Hannerz H., (2001), Manhood Trials and the Law of Mortality, Demographic Research, 7, 185–202.
Heligman L., Pollard J. H., (1980), The Age Pattern of Mortality, Journal of the Institute of Actuaries, 107, 49–80.
Kędeski M., Paradysz J., (2006), Demografia, Wydawnictwo Akademii Ekonomicznej w Poznaniu, Poznań.
Kostaki A., (1992), A Nine-Parameter Version of the Heligman-Pollard Formula, Mathematical Population Studies, 3 (4), 277–288.
Kotowska I., (1999), Drugie przejście demograficzne i jego uwarunkowania, Monografie i Opracowania SGH, 461, 11–33.
Kurkiewicz J., (red.), (2010), Procesy demograficzne i metody ich analizy, Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Krakowie, Kraków.
Kuropka I., (1992), Application of the Heligman and Pollard Model to the Comparative Analysis of Mortality in Poland and Russia, Prace Naukowe Akademii Ekonomicznej we Wrocławiu, 632, 23–29.
Kuropka I., (2009), Przydatność wybranych modeli umieralności do prognozowania natężenia zgonów w Polsce, Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we Wrocławiu, 38, 9–20.
Lee R., Reher D. S., (red.), (2011), Demographic Transition and Its Consequences, A supplement to volume 37, Population and Development Review.
McNown R., Rogers A., (1989), Forecasting Mortlity: A Parameterized Time Series Approach, Demography, 26 (4), 645–660.
McNown R., Rogers A., (1992), Forecasting Cause-Specific Mortality Using Time Series Methods, International Journal of Forecasting, 8 (3), 413–432.
Nash J., (1990), Compact Numerical Methods for Computers. Linear Algebra and Function Minimisation, CRC Press, Bristol.
Okólski M., Fihel A., (2012), Demografia. Współczesne zjawiska i teorie, Wydawnictwo Naukowe Scholar, Warszawa.
Podrażka-Malka A., (2006), Przemiany umieralności w Polsce w latach 1988–2004 na tle przejścia epidemiologicznego, Studia Demograficzne, 2/150, 3–65.
Preston S. H., Heuveline P., Guillot M., (2001), Demography. Measuring and Modeling Population Processes, Oxford: Blackwell Publishers.
Reher D. D., (2011), Economic and Social Implications of the Demographic Transition, w: Lee R., Reher D. S., (red.), Demographic Transition and Its Consequences, A supplement to volume 37, Population and Development Review, 11–33.
Rogers A., (1986), Parameterized Multistate Population Dynamics and Projections, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 81, 393, 48–61.
Tabeau E., van den Berg Jeths A., Heathcote Ch., (red.), (2001), Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries, European Studies of Population, 9, Kluwer Academic Publishers.
Wróblewska W., (2009), Teoria przejścia epidemiologicznego oraz fakty na przełomie wieków w Polsce, Studia Demograficzne, 1/155, 110–159.
